Every week I get the same question at closings, on the water and at the coffee shop: "Andrew, where is the market going?" Here's my honest read, with the numbers behind it, for St. Petersburg, Clearwater Beach and the rest of Pinellas County as we head into 2027.
The short version
- Mortgage rates are higher than a year ago, in the low 7% range, and the major forecasters expect them to stay there into 2027.
- Pinellas single-family homes are holding up well. Prices are still rising, inventory is tighter than last year, and homes are selling faster.
- Condos are a buyer's market, but a better one than last year. Supply is shrinking and prices have firmed up in well-run buildings.
- Insurance is finally getting cheaper, and Florida voters just approved a big homestead property-tax change for 2027.
Mortgage rates: the biggest swing factor
The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.24% in Freddie Mac's survey for the week of October 29, 2026. That's down from an October high of 7.40%, but more than a full point above where it was a year ago (about 6.2%). The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate in September for the first time since 2023, then held steady on October 28. Its next decision is December 9.
Fannie Mae's October outlook now expects the 30-year rate to average around 7.4% for the rest of 2026 and about 7.5% through 2027, citing stubborn inflation and higher bond yields. In plain English: don't wait for a big rate drop to make your move. If rates do ease, more buyers will flood back in at the same time, and competition goes up.
Single-family homes in Pinellas: still a seller-leaning market
- Median sale price: $464,950 in August, up 6.9% from a year ago. Year to date the median is $465,000, up 4.5%.
- Inventory: about 3,050 active listings, down 18.5% from last year. That's roughly 3.5 months of supply, versus 4.4 months a year ago.
- Speed: homes went under contract in a median of 37 days, versus 48 last year.
- Negotiating room: sellers received about 95.3% of their original list price, up from 93.3%.
Nationally, prices are only inching up (NAR's September median was $417,500, up 1.3% year over year), so Pinellas is outperforming the country. Tight supply is doing the heavy lifting.
Condos: more leverage for buyers, but improving
- Median condo/townhome price: $275,000 in August, up 5.8% year over year.
- Supply: 6.4 months of inventory, down from 8.0 a year ago. Still buyer-leaning, but getting healthier.
- Time to sell: about 74 days to contract, with sellers getting around 91.7% of their original list price.
- Cash is king: about 59% of condo sales were cash.
The condo story is all about the building. Florida's post-Surfside rules (milestone inspections and fully funded reserves) led to special assessments and higher HOA dues in many older buildings. Well-run buildings with completed inspections and healthy reserves are selling. Buildings with big unfunded repairs are still trading at a discount, and some lenders won't finance them. This is exactly where local knowledge pays off, on both sides of the deal.
Good news on insurance and property taxes
Insurance: since January 2024, 48 insurers have filed for rate decreases in Florida, and Citizens has shrunk from about 1.42 million policies to under 300,000 as private carriers return. That's real relief for monthly payments.
Amendment 3 passed on November 3 with about 62% of the vote. Starting January 1, 2027, it raises the homestead exemption on non-school property taxes ($150,000 of assessed value in 2027, rising to $250,000 in 2028 and indexed to inflation after that). It also lowers the annual assessment cap on non-homestead property from 10% to 5%. New residents get a smaller exemption for their first five years. If you own a second home, a rental or are buying in 2027, it's worth running your numbers with me.
So where are prices headed?
Here's my take for Pinellas heading into 2027. It's a forecast, not a guarantee:
- Single-family homes: a normal seasonal dip this fall and winter, then flat to modest gains in 2027. Inventory is too tight for a price drop unless rates jump sharply.
- Waterfront and coastal homes: they stay in demand. They're scarce, they draw cash buyers, and insurance relief helps.
- Condos: prices hold firm in well-funded buildings. Expect continued discounts, and real opportunities, in buildings facing large assessments.
- The wild card: rates. A drop toward the mid-6% range would bring buyers back quickly, especially under $400,000. Another Fed hike in December would cool things further.
What this means for you
Thinking about selling? With inventory down and homes selling faster, sellers who price right are in a strong spot. The days of "list high and wait" are over, though. Pricing and presentation decide your result.
Thinking about buying? You have more choices and more negotiating room than you did two years ago, especially in condos. If you buy now and rates fall later, you can refinance. You can't go back and buy at today's price.
Curious what your home is worth? I'll put together a free, no-pressure valuation based on what's actually selling on your street and in your building. And yes, I still bring a local restaurant gift card to every listing appointment, whether you hire me or not.
Call or text me at 727-944-8888, or email [email protected].
Andrew Cherry, BBM, CRS, GRI
Broker Associate, Coldwell Banker Realty
Luxury waterfront and coastal homes, St. Petersburg to Clearwater Beach
Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (week of Oct. 29, 2026); Federal Reserve FOMC statements (Sept. 16 and Oct. 28, 2026); Fannie Mae Housing Forecast (Oct. 2026); NAR existing-home sales (Sept. 2026); Truvera Title, Pinellas County Real Estate Market Update, Fall 2026 (August 2026 MLS data); election coverage of Florida Amendment 3 (Nov. 4, 2026). Forecasts are opinions and can change. This is not financial or tax advice.
